Is this the way the wealth of our society will be shared to insure consumption and the lifeblood of our economy when technology steals most of our jobs and few people work? Mincome Program, Dauphine Manitoba, cancelled by Conservatives on change of government 35 years ago!
Wednesday, June 15, 2016
Friday, June 3, 2016
Don't blame American job losses on China!
Trump, and many workers, should blame technology, not trade, for our job losses - a point I've been making on this site since 2008.
And this displacement of workers by technology is creating record returns for companies and investors and giant bonuses and salaries for the executive classes.
Without change, this practice will continue robbing the economy of consumption leading to revolution by working classes, increasing crime, and failure of our economy as companies go bankrupt through loss of sales because the population has few consumption dollars for anything beyond basic needs.
The early signs of revolution? The "Occupy" Movement of a few years ago and now the surprising political support for Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump!
Voters are fed up with the greed, corruption, and concentration of wealth in the hands of Corporate America and they demand change!
Workers should share in the benefits of technology through decreasing work hours to keep up employment with ever-increasing wages.
Because of these two historical adjustments, the pre-industrial revolution world has progressed from a 100 hour work week for every man, woman, and child to the present 37.5 hr work week with the highest standard of living in recorded history---but that work week has not changed for the last 60 years despite all of the computerized technology that is stealing the jobs.
And this displacement of workers by technology is creating record returns for companies and investors and giant bonuses and salaries for the executive classes.
Without change, this practice will continue robbing the economy of consumption leading to revolution by working classes, increasing crime, and failure of our economy as companies go bankrupt through loss of sales because the population has few consumption dollars for anything beyond basic needs.
The early signs of revolution? The "Occupy" Movement of a few years ago and now the surprising political support for Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump!
Voters are fed up with the greed, corruption, and concentration of wealth in the hands of Corporate America and they demand change!
Workers should share in the benefits of technology through decreasing work hours to keep up employment with ever-increasing wages.
Because of these two historical adjustments, the pre-industrial revolution world has progressed from a 100 hour work week for every man, woman, and child to the present 37.5 hr work week with the highest standard of living in recorded history---but that work week has not changed for the last 60 years despite all of the computerized technology that is stealing the jobs.
Thursday, June 2, 2016
THE ITEM ABOVE POSTED ON FACEBOOK LED TO THE FOLOWING INTERCHANGE OF QUERIES AND ANSWERS
R.K.----And what of the impact of moving jobs to Mexico, China, and other low-wage countries, Bill? Technology is a factor for sure, but it's not the whole story.
MY RESPONSE--- R.K. --Manufacturing worldwide is being taken over by machines. Undoubtedly many of those machines are manufactured in the west and sold as part of our export trade---machines for trinkets. We are being left with non-transferable service jobs that are also being replaced by technology---eg BMO $1B 2nd qtr profit that was reduced due to more technology purchases that will replace more than the 1850 workers currently announced....but dividends are increasing as will executive salaries and bonuses....only the "controllers" of the economy are benefitting from the technology---not the workers or the economy. I have written extensively on this topic since 2008 on this site.
MY FURTHER RESPONSE--- R.K.---TImes are always changing and we'll always have some luddites resistant to change. There is no question that changing ideas about work and "earnings" have to accompany the changing realities and about how we look at work, what is fair and necessary in a society to ensure consumption to keep a vibrant economy afloat, and how to fairly share the fruits of the economy when few are working. Our practise now is to deprecate those who are given survival money for not working (welfare---a bad word!)---but what do you call it when machines do virtually all work and few people work? This will be the future norm---few workers and how to fairly provide most of society with a living stipend to provide everyone with a decent living standard and sufficient consumption to keep the economy alive. This may happen in the next 20-30 years and is a pressing problem. In the meantime, we should get used to the idea of job sharing through a decrease in working hours, with pay based on machine productivity rather than on human hours of labour, as we transition to the future of virtually no work....a day when machines read vital signs over your smartphone and take over medicine, a day when machines build machines and buildings (3D printing!), a day of all automated vehicles, a day when machines generate all computer code, a day when voice commands direct machines to deliver your every whim and fancy----a day of 100% leisure for all when the biggest problem for humankind will be figuring out how to productively, stimulatingly, and interestingly utilize our time---maybe a major problem facing humanity---but a problem successfully met in many undeveloped regions where art, music, and social interaction flourishes....Africa, Caribbean Islands, and pockets of the American unemployed particularly among the inner-city black populations who have been cultural leaders in the development of music, dance, language, fashion, sport, etc.
R.K. ----What's your solution, Bill?
MY RESPONSE--- Solution? As stated above----up until about 60 years ago, we've been following a consistent post industrial revolution pattern--decreasing work hours and increasing pay commensurate with increasing productivity!...With the accelerated takeover of work by technology and robotics, we'll have to once again resume a cut in work week hours while maintaining a growing fair share of the fruits of our economy, with pay based on productivity of our machines rather than human work hours, as we transition to days of little human work----coming in the next 20-30 years. We have to start envisioning a new world which will have new rules than the world we've known. Those who can't/won't accept the changes will be left behind. People have to look ahead and not behind. I remember giving a lecture to Chinese students in 1998 criticizing China for its overriding worship of China's glorious history and accomplishments. I summarized with the analogy that any person (country) that walks forward looking backward over their shoulder is bound to walk into a brick wall. Old problems, old questions, old attudes, old answers, old ideas, old skills, old insights, old habits, and old ways of doing things while looking at the new world in old ways just won't work for the new problems, new questions, and new challenges we will face in our rapidly changing world where...knowledge is advancing exponentially and doubling in rapidly compressing periods of time. As Alice in Wonderland said, "I have to run as fast as I can just to keep up!
Interestingly, when machines take over all work, machine labour will cost the same everywhere and most production will migrate back to consumming countries or resouce-producing countries as transportation of goods and materials will become the determining issue.
R.K.---(drum roll please...) I agree with you, Bill. :)
R.K.---Not sure it will be as short a time frame as 20-30 years, but the world industrialized economies are evolving into a scenario where the masses will find it increasingly difficult to find meaningful, full time work based on the changes you elaborated on above.
My question to some free-market capitalists in an online debate group I participate in was, "What will happen to the tax rate on the affluent citizens if the range of traditional middle-class industrial and commercial worker jobs keep getting replaced by robotics and out-sourcing to low-wage, Third World countries? Who will pay all the tax revenue needed by the current-style, size and scope of Western Democracies?"
No one ventured a solid, solutions-based answer.
When I asked about a UBI (Universal Basic Income)? No answer besides, "Where would the money come from?"
What's your answer Bill?
MY RESPONSE---Ah ha, the tax rate! Let's be fair! In a utopian sharing world, everyone would realize that we are all on this boat together and there is no room for anyone whose insatiable greed wants to sink us all. Those who benefit more from the society should pay more---basic!
In these days of soaring executive salaries, soaring stock markets as a result of record dividends payouts, burgeoning corporate bank accounts of dead cash, and the resulting record concentration of wealth in the hands of a few, all facilitated by a race to the bottom in corporate tax rates granted by right wing governments, I have no sympathy for corporations or the wealthy who continually call for tax breaks, only as likely to hide their surplus cash in offshore tax dodges.
In the case of taxes required to sustain governments, i suspect they'd be fewer in the idyllic and inclusive "new world" that brought everyone fairly into the economy---with I'd suspect, less war, less crime, less jails, and less poverty, erasing the costliest functions of governments and reducing the size and massive costs of our bureaucracy to fund and carry out these programs.
But, carrying on the "boat analogy," there is a need for leadership on that boat by a captain and his lieutenants. But, no matter how smart or skillful the captain, he is unlikely to save a leaking boat. Boat safety, in large measure, rests on factors external to the captain---just as in an economy where profitability is often more a factor of world and national economic climate, which are factors external to company leadership.
The captain has a grave responsibility as best as he can, for looking after all others on the boat and thus may deserve a finer bed than the rest of us....but 10 beds or 50 beds on this crowded ship---NO WAY! No one on the ship should be thrown overboard because the captain wants more room. Similarly, it is unethical for self-interested and greedy CEO's to throw workers overboard to cut costs to justify their own increased salary and bonuses. It is a privilege to run a business in this country and that comes with costs---taxes and social responsibility!
In point of fact, executive pay levels continue to climb, no matter the financial or business performance of the company. CEO's are often awarded healthy increases despite slumping sales, profits, and stock market performance, even while laying off hundreds or thousands of workers.
I have little concern for tax rates on the affluent. According to Forbes Magazine, the 85 wealthiest in the world have as much wealth as the 3.5 million poorest, and in the USA, the wealthiest 1% captured 96% of all posi-financial crisis growth since 2009, while the bottom 90% became poorer.
According to Oxfam's "Working For The Few" Report, wealth controls government policymaking causing the rules to bend in favor of the rich, to the detriment of everyone else. In the report, Supreme Court Justice Louis Brandeis, is quoted with the observation ‘We may have democracy, or we may have wealth concentrated in the hands of the few, but we cannot have both.’
In the above illustration, I've demonstrated that I believe in a variance of economic rewards within ethical and reasonable limits. The question is what is a reasonable and fair variance...and actual practice varies widely around the world. While the Swiss will vote on capping CEO salaries at 12 times the pay of their lowest paid workers (which is a huge incentive for them to raise these minimum wages), the 2012 average of S&P 500 US companies was $12.3M, or 354 times the salary of the average worker (or in perspective, the CEO makes his worker's annual salary in 6 hours), and in Japan, the large cap CEO makes 67 times the salary of his average worker who makes approximately the same as his counterpart USA worker. It is interesting to compare how many hours top paid Canadian CEO's have to work to earn your annual income.
In the case of the giant wads of taxpayer cash provided to "save" GM, this appears to be the corporation calling "wolf" to get cash to add to their bottom line. The $12B didn't produce one job, create one unit of increased productivity, create one new sale, or save jobs in Canada. It showed in the financial statement "bottom line" as increased profitability supporting executive bonuses and salary increases and increased dividends for the investor class. The corporate world is always complaining of high costs and high taxes yet executive salaries and bonuses, the soaring stock market, and burgeoning corporate bank accounts are all at record highs so things cannot be too bleak for the corporate world....tag days need not be arranged for them anytime soon. And Corporate tax rates, on monies not hidden offshore, have fallen to record lows and far smaller marginal tax rates than you and I footing the bills. Corporations operating here have to be held far more responsible for their ethics, honesty, and social responsibility---and paying their fair share of taxes.
MY RESPONSE--- R.K. --Manufacturing worldwide is being taken over by machines. Undoubtedly many of those machines are manufactured in the west and sold as part of our export trade---machines for trinkets. We are being left with non-transferable service jobs that are also being replaced by technology---eg BMO $1B 2nd qtr profit that was reduced due to more technology purchases that will replace more than the 1850 workers currently announced....but dividends are increasing as will executive salaries and bonuses....only the "controllers" of the economy are benefitting from the technology---not the workers or the economy. I have written extensively on this topic since 2008 on this site.
MY FURTHER RESPONSE--- R.K.---TImes are always changing and we'll always have some luddites resistant to change. There is no question that changing ideas about work and "earnings" have to accompany the changing realities and about how we look at work, what is fair and necessary in a society to ensure consumption to keep a vibrant economy afloat, and how to fairly share the fruits of the economy when few are working. Our practise now is to deprecate those who are given survival money for not working (welfare---a bad word!)---but what do you call it when machines do virtually all work and few people work? This will be the future norm---few workers and how to fairly provide most of society with a living stipend to provide everyone with a decent living standard and sufficient consumption to keep the economy alive. This may happen in the next 20-30 years and is a pressing problem. In the meantime, we should get used to the idea of job sharing through a decrease in working hours, with pay based on machine productivity rather than on human hours of labour, as we transition to the future of virtually no work....a day when machines read vital signs over your smartphone and take over medicine, a day when machines build machines and buildings (3D printing!), a day of all automated vehicles, a day when machines generate all computer code, a day when voice commands direct machines to deliver your every whim and fancy----a day of 100% leisure for all when the biggest problem for humankind will be figuring out how to productively, stimulatingly, and interestingly utilize our time---maybe a major problem facing humanity---but a problem successfully met in many undeveloped regions where art, music, and social interaction flourishes....Africa, Caribbean Islands, and pockets of the American unemployed particularly among the inner-city black populations who have been cultural leaders in the development of music, dance, language, fashion, sport, etc.
R.K. ----What's your solution, Bill?
MY RESPONSE--- Solution? As stated above----up until about 60 years ago, we've been following a consistent post industrial revolution pattern--decreasing work hours and increasing pay commensurate with increasing productivity!...With the accelerated takeover of work by technology and robotics, we'll have to once again resume a cut in work week hours while maintaining a growing fair share of the fruits of our economy, with pay based on productivity of our machines rather than human work hours, as we transition to days of little human work----coming in the next 20-30 years. We have to start envisioning a new world which will have new rules than the world we've known. Those who can't/won't accept the changes will be left behind. People have to look ahead and not behind. I remember giving a lecture to Chinese students in 1998 criticizing China for its overriding worship of China's glorious history and accomplishments. I summarized with the analogy that any person (country) that walks forward looking backward over their shoulder is bound to walk into a brick wall. Old problems, old questions, old attudes, old answers, old ideas, old skills, old insights, old habits, and old ways of doing things while looking at the new world in old ways just won't work for the new problems, new questions, and new challenges we will face in our rapidly changing world where...knowledge is advancing exponentially and doubling in rapidly compressing periods of time. As Alice in Wonderland said, "I have to run as fast as I can just to keep up!
Interestingly, when machines take over all work, machine labour will cost the same everywhere and most production will migrate back to consumming countries or resouce-producing countries as transportation of goods and materials will become the determining issue.
R.K.---(drum roll please...) I agree with you, Bill. :)
R.K.---Not sure it will be as short a time frame as 20-30 years, but the world industrialized economies are evolving into a scenario where the masses will find it increasingly difficult to find meaningful, full time work based on the changes you elaborated on above.
My question to some free-market capitalists in an online debate group I participate in was, "What will happen to the tax rate on the affluent citizens if the range of traditional middle-class industrial and commercial worker jobs keep getting replaced by robotics and out-sourcing to low-wage, Third World countries? Who will pay all the tax revenue needed by the current-style, size and scope of Western Democracies?"
No one ventured a solid, solutions-based answer.
When I asked about a UBI (Universal Basic Income)? No answer besides, "Where would the money come from?"
What's your answer Bill?
MY RESPONSE---Ah ha, the tax rate! Let's be fair! In a utopian sharing world, everyone would realize that we are all on this boat together and there is no room for anyone whose insatiable greed wants to sink us all. Those who benefit more from the society should pay more---basic!
In these days of soaring executive salaries, soaring stock markets as a result of record dividends payouts, burgeoning corporate bank accounts of dead cash, and the resulting record concentration of wealth in the hands of a few, all facilitated by a race to the bottom in corporate tax rates granted by right wing governments, I have no sympathy for corporations or the wealthy who continually call for tax breaks, only as likely to hide their surplus cash in offshore tax dodges.
In the case of taxes required to sustain governments, i suspect they'd be fewer in the idyllic and inclusive "new world" that brought everyone fairly into the economy---with I'd suspect, less war, less crime, less jails, and less poverty, erasing the costliest functions of governments and reducing the size and massive costs of our bureaucracy to fund and carry out these programs.
But, carrying on the "boat analogy," there is a need for leadership on that boat by a captain and his lieutenants. But, no matter how smart or skillful the captain, he is unlikely to save a leaking boat. Boat safety, in large measure, rests on factors external to the captain---just as in an economy where profitability is often more a factor of world and national economic climate, which are factors external to company leadership.
The captain has a grave responsibility as best as he can, for looking after all others on the boat and thus may deserve a finer bed than the rest of us....but 10 beds or 50 beds on this crowded ship---NO WAY! No one on the ship should be thrown overboard because the captain wants more room. Similarly, it is unethical for self-interested and greedy CEO's to throw workers overboard to cut costs to justify their own increased salary and bonuses. It is a privilege to run a business in this country and that comes with costs---taxes and social responsibility!
In point of fact, executive pay levels continue to climb, no matter the financial or business performance of the company. CEO's are often awarded healthy increases despite slumping sales, profits, and stock market performance, even while laying off hundreds or thousands of workers.
I have little concern for tax rates on the affluent. According to Forbes Magazine, the 85 wealthiest in the world have as much wealth as the 3.5 million poorest, and in the USA, the wealthiest 1% captured 96% of all posi-financial crisis growth since 2009, while the bottom 90% became poorer.
According to Oxfam's "Working For The Few" Report, wealth controls government policymaking causing the rules to bend in favor of the rich, to the detriment of everyone else. In the report, Supreme Court Justice Louis Brandeis, is quoted with the observation ‘We may have democracy, or we may have wealth concentrated in the hands of the few, but we cannot have both.’
In the above illustration, I've demonstrated that I believe in a variance of economic rewards within ethical and reasonable limits. The question is what is a reasonable and fair variance...and actual practice varies widely around the world. While the Swiss will vote on capping CEO salaries at 12 times the pay of their lowest paid workers (which is a huge incentive for them to raise these minimum wages), the 2012 average of S&P 500 US companies was $12.3M, or 354 times the salary of the average worker (or in perspective, the CEO makes his worker's annual salary in 6 hours), and in Japan, the large cap CEO makes 67 times the salary of his average worker who makes approximately the same as his counterpart USA worker. It is interesting to compare how many hours top paid Canadian CEO's have to work to earn your annual income.
In the case of the giant wads of taxpayer cash provided to "save" GM, this appears to be the corporation calling "wolf" to get cash to add to their bottom line. The $12B didn't produce one job, create one unit of increased productivity, create one new sale, or save jobs in Canada. It showed in the financial statement "bottom line" as increased profitability supporting executive bonuses and salary increases and increased dividends for the investor class. The corporate world is always complaining of high costs and high taxes yet executive salaries and bonuses, the soaring stock market, and burgeoning corporate bank accounts are all at record highs so things cannot be too bleak for the corporate world....tag days need not be arranged for them anytime soon. And Corporate tax rates, on monies not hidden offshore, have fallen to record lows and far smaller marginal tax rates than you and I footing the bills. Corporations operating here have to be held far more responsible for their ethics, honesty, and social responsibility---and paying their fair share of taxes.
Monday, May 23, 2016
10 Questions on the Future of Work
This futurist/philosopher/author (Don't Throw Stones At The Google Bus) was on the Steve Paikin TVO program (The Agenda) recently discussing the future of work...interestingly he discusses 2 key issues that I often comment on in this blog---1) the need to ration work to make sure there is enough to go around as automation "steals" most of the jobs which I've expressed as the need to transition to a world of little work through a phasing in of reduced hours in a full work week to keep up employment, and 2) the problem of how to fairly distribute the fruits of the economy in the future when machines do all the work
Sunday, May 15, 2016
What Jobs Are You Training For Now
Change is the only constant in the world...The fate of all present industries and ALL present jobs, and the way of doing virtually all things in the world, will be eliminated in short order.
As change accelerates, all industries and all knowledge will have a shortened life.
Think of this! Consider the following example of an industry giant’s demise and apply the lesson to everything you know, do, and learn.
In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide.
In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide.
Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt.
What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 10 year - and most people won't see it coming.
Did you think in 1968, for example, that in 3 short years, you’d never take pictures on paper film again?.
In the future, real nostalia will be derived from remembering the artifacts of the last few years. Think I'll go hug my few antique typewriters from the 1890's as I think of the disappearance of everything I know in this accelerating world!
MORE ON THIS FROM A FUTURIST!
MORE ON THIS FROM A FUTURIST!
What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 10
years. Digital cameras were invented with
poor picture resolution in 1975, but as with all exponential technologies, development quickly
followed Moore's law, and picture resolution became superior in a few short years. The same will
now happen with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and electric cars,
education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs. Welcome to the 4th Industrial
Revolution. Welcome to the Exponential Age.
Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10
years.
Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the
biggest taxi company in the world. Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in
the world, although they don't own any properties.
Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better
in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player in
the world, 10 years earlier than expected. In the US, young lawyers
already don't get jobs. Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far
for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with
70% accuracy when done by humans. So if you study law, stop immediately. There
will be 90% less lawyers in the future, only specialists will remain.
Watson already helps nurses in diagnosing cancer, 4 time more accurate
than human nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can
recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will become more
intelligent than humans.
Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self-driving cars will appear
for the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted.
You don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it
will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not
need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive
while driving. Our kids will never get a driver's licence and will never own a
car. It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars for that.
We can transform former parking space into parks. 1,2 million people die each
year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 100,000km, with
autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 10 million km. That will
save a million lives each year.
Most car companies might become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try
the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies
(Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer
on wheels. The traditional car companes are completely terrified of Tesla.
Insurance companies will have massive trouble because without accidents,
the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will
disappear.
Real estate will change. Because if you can work at home or while you
commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful
neighborhood.
Electric cars will become mainstream until 2020. Cities will be less
noisy because all cars will run on electric. Electricity will become incredibly
cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30
years, but you can only now see the impact. Last year, more solar energy was
installed worldwide than fossil. The price for solar will drop so much that all
coal companies will be out of business by 2025.
With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination now
only needs 2kWh per cubic meter. We don't have scarce water in most places, we
only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can
have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.
Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There will be
companies who will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder"
from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, you
blood sample and you breath into it. It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will
identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on
this planet will have access to world class medicine, nearly for free.
3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer will come down from 18,000$ to
400$ within 10 years. In the same time, it will become 100 times faster. All major shoe companies will start printing
3D shoes. Spare airplane parts are already being 3D printed in remote airports.
The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large
amount of spare parts they used to have in the past.
At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning
possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at
home. In China, they already 3D printed a complete 6-storey office building. By
2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed.
Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to
go in, ask yourself: "in the future, do you think we will have that?"
and if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner? If it doesn't
work with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea designed for success in the
20th century is doomed in to failure in the 21st century.
Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a
lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a
small time.
Agriculture: There will be a 100$ agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd
world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all
days on their fields. Aeroponics will need much less water. The first petri
dish produced veal is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal
in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine
if we don't need that space anymore. There are several startups who will bring
insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It
will be labeled as "alternative protein source" (because most people
still reject the idea of eating insects).
There is an app called "moodies" which can already tell in
which mood you are. Until 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial
expressions if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it's being
displayed when they are telling the truth and when not.
Bitcoin will become mainstream this year and might even become the default
reserve currency.
Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four
years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80 years. The increase
itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more that one year increase per
year. So we all might live for a long long time, probably way more than 100.
Education: The cheapest smart phones are already at 10$ in Africa and Asia. By
2020, 70% of all humans will own a smart phone. That means, everyone will have
the same access to world class education. Every child will be able to access world
class instruction for everything learned in schools worldwide.
No part of the human condition will remain untouched!
Saturday, March 5, 2016
The End of Work Is Near!
This item from the New York Times addresses the topic of distributing the output of the economy once technology does the vast majority of work thus leaving few jobs for humans.
This is a topic I've mused about on this site, particularly as an addendum to the post immediately following---Writer's PS---Subject for another post....another day!
As I suggested, there is a need to start transitioning to a time of no jobs when technology does all the work and the need to devise fair methods of sharing the output if the economy to keep the economic wheels turning when few people work.
It's interesting that others are also starting to muse about this impending problem which has already started to impact our society.
I have argued for a reducing work week to keep up employment levels as we transition to a world of no jobs. Revolution, led by the growing armies of the unemployed will result if we fail to start the transition now to a world of little work!
In the meantime, national leaders will have to implement social policy to limit the obcene acceleration in the concentration of wealth in the hands of a few to avoid social upheaval and revolution.
This is a topic I've mused about on this site, particularly as an addendum to the post immediately following---Writer's PS---Subject for another post....another day!
As I suggested, there is a need to start transitioning to a time of no jobs when technology does all the work and the need to devise fair methods of sharing the output if the economy to keep the economic wheels turning when few people work.
It's interesting that others are also starting to muse about this impending problem which has already started to impact our society.
I have argued for a reducing work week to keep up employment levels as we transition to a world of no jobs. Revolution, led by the growing armies of the unemployed will result if we fail to start the transition now to a world of little work!
In the meantime, national leaders will have to implement social policy to limit the obcene acceleration in the concentration of wealth in the hands of a few to avoid social upheaval and revolution.
Monday, September 15, 2014
Here's the Plight of too Many Workers today
The NDP posted a Facebook petition to raise minimum wage to $15 per hour.
I signed the petition and shared it on FB with the comment, "I support this....and more importantly, so can record corporate profits, record executive salaries, record dividend payouts, and record stock market levels. I'd also support a reduced work week that hasn't been adjusted in 60 years to provide more jobs to replace all those stolen by technology.
And while we're at it, I'd support government action to stop employers, including the government itself, from defining an increasing number of jobs as part time, contract, and casual, just to escape benefits costs. In America. huge wealthy employers like Microsoft and IBM have been taken to court for workplace discrimination for having workers working side-by-side doing the same work but with different employment benefits, salaries, and employment conditions.
If this workplace or social discrimination had been based on race, religion, sexual preference, etc., instead of on workplace discrimination, it would have been prosecuted as intolerable years ago. But workplace slavery, discrimination, unfairness, and injustices today are still the norm, as the rich bosses sit on their as--s in their fancy offices holding their crystal of expensive wine anticipating the money their serfs have made them today.
It's time that employees got to share in the wealth they create with increasing wages more than match the cost of living. Let's up the wage.
Add your name: ndp.ca/up-the-wage
As a result of this post, I received the following heartfelt comment from S.M. from Smith's Falls that reflects the concerns of most workers today.
He wrote, "You know Bill, I agree completely but, what happens when the cost of things goes up at all these retail stores because of the increase or some jobs are extinguished. Either way and in the end, once the prices go up, the wage increase is of little value.
Now that said, I have no clue what the answer is, but certainly wages have not kept up to costs even by a wee bit.
I run a company in plumbing wholesale and yet, I know people who make far more than I do without all the responsibility. It sucks.
Is there a truly GOOD answer? I'm not convinced!
Greed has been incredible in big business, but in general the money does not seem to be out there, so someone is sitting on it.
When you hear of the poor folks in retail or manufacturing jobs, so many are terribly under paid but, what of taxes too?
I had to work part time 2 years ago to try and make ends meet and guess what? I ended up with a $4800 tax bill. I only worked for 20 hours a week at $11.50. And that $4800 was AFTER my pay cheques had been taxed because I made too much... RIGHT!
Please, someone needs to find a solid solution to this because as wages go up, prices go up, then taxes increase by percentage etc. It is a nasty cycle. It has to end somewhere.
As it stands now, I have no pension other than a small one through WCB (WSIB now) that is losing money and they will not allow you to withdraw it in favour of a better paying locked in fund.
So, it looks like I am on the Freedom 95!
S.M. posed great concerns affecting the majority of workers today and caused me to put on my thinking cap and came up with some ideas I'd never thought of before, but which will probably become part of my future arsenal in working for fairer wages and fairer treatment of workers, both key objectives of this website...and so I responded.
Hello S.M. I'm sympathetic to the plight of all workers these days...and unfortunately, without major change, the future looks even bleaker for our sons and daughters.
I have some confidence in market place competition keeping prices in check.
A key problem, contributing the problem are corporation tax cuts that only serve to balloon corporate salaries and bonuses, flood corporate bank accounts with record amounts of dead cash, provide record dividend payouts to investors, and not one iota of productivity improvement or jobs creation, or investment for future returns. For sure, these tax cuts have been influential in helping grow the wealth and salary gaps between the top 1% and the rest of us.
These corporate tax cuts must made up by ordinary Canadians that then cuts into their available consumption dollars. In the end, as the middle class is decimated, and consumption drops, the economy will fail and all of those corporate businessmen will themselves be out of work.
I believe the following measures would insure that corporations exercise societal responsibility to insure that workers share in some of the fruits of the economy, and that there is a thriving middle consuming class to keep the economy flourishing.
So I'd recommend the following:
Bill Longworth
905 579 3971
Writer's PS---Subject for another post....another day!
We have to start the transition to the impact of increasing technology that will eventually eliminate jobs for the vast majority of Canadians when only a small percentage of people will work. Ultimately, even service McJobs will be lost to computerized technology, and the big challenge will be in figuring out how to fairly and equitably share the increasing fruits of the economy with the increasing numbers of non-workers. Even though few people will work, they still must consume 1) to supply their basic food/health needs, etc., and 2) to keep the wheels of the economy rolling. The point is, we must start the transition now in reducing hours to keep up employment while still providing liveable wages as part of that treasured day probably not too many years in the future when few will work. There are lessons to be learned and an early start will help us transition to the "new age" with mini-steps and avoid the "shock" of revolutionary overnight transformative adjustments.
If this workplace or social discrimination had been based on race, religion, sexual preference, etc., instead of on workplace discrimination, it would have been prosecuted as intolerable years ago. But workplace slavery, discrimination, unfairness, and injustices today are still the norm, as the rich bosses sit on their as--s in their fancy offices holding their crystal of expensive wine anticipating the money their serfs have made them today.
It's time that employees got to share in the wealth they create with increasing wages more than match the cost of living. Let's up the wage.
- Increase corporate tax
- Tax dividends at the taxpayer's ordinary tax rate
- Tax corporate banking of dead cash above pre-determined levels according to corporate size and documented and tracked plans to put the dead funds to future use (never heard of this before but it would encourage corporations to spend the extra cash in productivity improvements and worker salary/benefits---or lose some of it!)
- Tax all technology that displaces workers without decreasing their hours to reduce pre-technology levels to keep up employment and put downward pressure on work week hours
- Put a tax on every part time/contract/casual job created and put a tax reduction on every permanent (2 yrs) full time job created
- Compel benefits to be paid by a company for every job (part time/contract/casual) at a pro-rated level with those of full time workers
905 579 3971
Writer's PS---Subject for another post....another day!
We have to start the transition to the impact of increasing technology that will eventually eliminate jobs for the vast majority of Canadians when only a small percentage of people will work. Ultimately, even service McJobs will be lost to computerized technology, and the big challenge will be in figuring out how to fairly and equitably share the increasing fruits of the economy with the increasing numbers of non-workers. Even though few people will work, they still must consume 1) to supply their basic food/health needs, etc., and 2) to keep the wheels of the economy rolling. The point is, we must start the transition now in reducing hours to keep up employment while still providing liveable wages as part of that treasured day probably not too many years in the future when few will work. There are lessons to be learned and an early start will help us transition to the "new age" with mini-steps and avoid the "shock" of revolutionary overnight transformative adjustments.
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